EURUSD – Up
An event to look out for today:
17:00 GMT+3. USD – Consumer confidence indicator
EURUSD:
The EUR and USD pair failed to find momentum on Monday, hovering near 1.0860 after US markets went into a long holiday weekend. The trading week will begin in earnest today after German sentiment surveys hamstrung the Euro (EUR) on Monday.
Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic will be talking about a variety of topics this week. The European Central Bank (ECB) is virtually guaranteed to cut interest rates in June, while rate-hungry traders continue to look for signs of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a nearly even chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in September, down significantly from more than 70% a week ago.
German inflation data is due out on Wednesday, with markets expecting the German economy to have grown by just 0.2% in May, down from the previous reading of 0.5%.
The US will dominate the second half of the economic calendar this week with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday. US first quarter GDP is expected to fall to 1.4% vs. 1.6%, while investors are hoping that PCE price index inflation will hold steady at 0.3% mom in April.
German retail sales and the pan-European harmonized consumer price index (HICP) will be released on Friday. German retail sales rose 0.3% y/y in April, while HICP inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7% y/y in May.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0890. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0850.
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