GBPUSD – Flat
Events to watch out for today:
14:30 EET. USD – Core PCE Price Index
GBPUSD:
The Pound-Dollar pair continued to decline to the 1.2955 level in the early Asian session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is declining following the UK budget announcement. Later on Thursday, attention will shift to US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data.
The UK’s New Labour government released its first budget on Wednesday, which includes a GBP 40 billion tax hike to plug a hole in public finances and allow investment in public services, CNBC reported. One of the measures that is projected to bring the most revenue to the UK’s coffers is an increase in the amount employers pay in National Insurance (NI), a payroll tax.
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter came in below expectations. ADP’s October employment change report showed that private companies hired more people than expected. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut at the November meeting at nearly 95.2%.
The release of US PCE inflation data on Thursday may provide some hints on the size and pace of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September, while core PCE for the same period is expected to rise 0.3% m/m. The softer-than-expected result may raise hopes for deeper rate cuts and put pressure on the US dollar.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2950, if the level is fixed below we consider Sell positions, if the level rebounds we consider Buy positions.
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