Dear clients,
The Bank of England will announce on Thursday whether it is halting its series of interest rate hikes, a day after signs that a turnaround is in sight in the UK’s handling of high inflation.
As soon as official data showed an unexpected drop in the rate of price growth, investors began betting on Wednesday that the Bank of England would keep the Bank Rate at 5.25%. By Thursday, the figure had already reached 5.5%
Goldman Sachs and other banks abandoned their earlier expectations of another rate hike, and investors put the Bank of England’s pause at around 50%, up from 20% on Tuesday.
Other analysts said they still see a final Bank of England rate hike as the most likely outcome following the recent surge in global oil prices, but emphasised that it could go either way.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee have been heavily criticised after consumer price inflation topped 11% last October.
In recent weeks, Bailey and other officials have emphasised that while they may be close to reaching the peak of their series of rate rises, they may have to keep borrowing costs high for some time, dashing hopes of a rapid rate cut.
Whether or not the Bank of England raises rates again, it is likely to face the challenge of convincing investors that it will stand by its judgement and not rush to cut rates even as the already fragile UK economy shows signs of weakening.
The Bank of England is concerned that wages are still defying a slowdown in the wider economy and are rising at a record pace, threatening to derail its attempts to bring inflation down.
As well as the rate decision, the central bank is expected to unveil details of the next phase of a programme to reduce the stockpile of government bonds it has built up over a decade and a half to help the economy during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
