EURUSD – Up
An event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD – Unemployment rate
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair is trading in the bullish zone for the sixth consecutive day. A large amount of economic data is expected on Friday. European retail sales and the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) could cause a major shift in the chart. U.S. markets will return to work after Thursday’s U.S. Independence Day holiday, and market activity will increase markedly during Friday’s U.S. trading window.
German Factory Orders missed expectations on Thursday, falling -1.6% m/m in May vs. the previous reading of -0.2%, and falling short of the forecasted 0.5% increase. Despite the weaker European data, a broad-based decline in the US Dollar helped the pair to consolidate near-term highs north of 1.0800.
EU retail sales data will be released early on Friday. Month-on-month retail sales are expected to rise to 0.2% in May from the previous decline of -0.5%, while year-on-year retail sales are expected to rise to 0.1% from the previous decline of 0.0%.
The US NFP figure is expected to fall to 190k in June from 272k in the previous month. Markets will also be watching for a sharp revision to previous data, while the US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0% m/m in June. Average hourly earnings in the US are expected to decline slightly in June, with a forecast of 3.9% y/y vs. the previous reading of 4,.% y/y.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0850. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0785.
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