Dear clients,
An index designed to track turns in the US business cycle declined for the 15th consecutive month in June, led by weakening consumer sentiment and rising jobless claims, marking the longest decline since the 2007-2009 recession.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators, a gauge that helps forecast future economic activity, fell 0.7% to 106.1 in June after a revised 0.6% decline in May.
„Taken together, the data for June suggest that economic activity will continue to slow in the coming months“, the organisation’s analysts said. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024.
The Conference Board also noted that the decline in the LEI index is accelerating, with it falling 4.2% in the past six months, down from 3.8% between June and December 2022.
