Forex Fundamental Analysis – Reasons for GBP/USD downgrade

GBPUSD – Flat

Event to watch out for today:

09:00 EET. GBP – Change in GDP volume

GBPUSD:

The strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February leads to a decline in the main pair.

US inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. The monthly CPI reading was in line with expectations, while the annualized rate was above the market consensus of 3.1%. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% for the month and 3.8% for the year, beating forecasts.

On Thursday, investors will focus on retail sales data for February, which is expected to rise 0.8% from the previous month. Strong retail sales data could trigger a further reassessment of expectations following February’s CPI inflation report.

On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released data showing that the annual rate of wage growth in the UK is falling. The measure of average earnings in the UK from November last year to January 2024 fell to 5.6% from 5.8% in the previous reading, while annual wage growth fell to 6.1% from 6.2% previously.

Investors are awaiting UK GDP growth data for January, which is forecast to increase by 0.2% m/m.

Trading recommendation: Trade with buy orders when reaching from the price of 1.2820. Sell at the price level of 1.2710

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