Forex Fundamental Analysis – The arbiters of US recessions


USDJPY trading plan:

The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business-cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two negative quarters of gross domestic product is the definition of a recession. Instead, it looks at indicators ranging from consumption to jobs to industrial activity. “There is currently a conflict between the robust growth of payroll employment and the modest declines in some other monthly indicators,” said Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University professor and member of the committee. He doesn’t comment on his view of recession. Adjusted for inflation, personal consumption has continued to expand this year, rising in five of the past six months. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of the US economy, so it remains a key driver for growth.

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