Forex Fundamental Analysis – The recession risks


EURUSD trading plan:

Lending to euro zone companies accelerated in June, confounding fears that banks are tightening access to credit as uncertainty about inflation and the fallout of the war are pointing to recession risks, European Central Bank data showed. Lending to companies in the 19-country euro area expanded by 6.8% in June after 5.8% a month earlier, while credit growth to households held steady at 4.6%, fresh data showed. Banks said they tightened access to credit already in the second quarter and the ECB’s quarterly lending survey last week pointed to even more caution in the current quarter. This has raised fears that the ECB’s rate hikes — started with a 50-basis point increase last week and set to continue into next year — could exacerbate the downturn. Growth in the M3 measure of money circulating in the euro zone meanwhile slowed to 5.7% from 5.8%, partly a reflection of the ECB reduction in money printing.

Investment idea: sell 1.0240 and take profit 1.0150.

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